The Siena poll found that “independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. …The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points–a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.”
This is the chunk you're complaining about? They didn't even refute the poll they just don't like that data. And that's after consistently complaining about polls that were marked as toss-ups.
Like please respond to the first one. Because the polls got Oz vs. Fetterman largely correct and it's the first example of a miss which should be the strongest one.
In other words, China, Malaysia, Korea, etc. – somewhere in Asia.
The Shadow Broker's leaks showed that state actors had whole tool suites to ensure that the product appeared like it was coming from a different location. Given that those tools have been leaked since 2016 and the concept is even older; relying on metadata like timezones, character set, etc... to make determinations about location is unreliable at best.
Did you read that article? Their first example of a polling "miss":
The average poll in the week before election day had Mehmet Oz beating John Fetterman by nearly 1% in Pennsylvania when in reality Fetterman beat Oz by nearly 5%
Pollsters were actually calling that race a toss up (also 538's page ). There were several polls that predicted a slim Oz and several that predicted a slim Fetterman. Even the Republican leading pollster that was predicting a 1% the wrong way has a confidence interval of +/- 2.5 and had 4.9% other/undecided factor in the poll.
People are angry that they can't read polls. They're angry that a toss up is just that.
Wow, hyperbolic polling “data” that is consistently inaccurate
Citation needed.
What's more; the majority of Americans don't vote. Trump realized that if you can convince non-voters to vote you can crush in an election and that's where the majority of his support has come from. Biden, the Democrats (and honestly the establishment Republicans) still don't realize or are unwilling to utilize this fact.
To win; Biden needs to help American's pocketbooks and do so now.
Everyone seemed to take the tone as support for Trump, which doesn’t appear to be the intent.
Ya that's pretty normal. Trump is the worst president in my lifetime. He should be easy to beat.
You'd be surprised. No Child Left Behind caused a lot of schools to "auto-pass" failing students to get them off of their rolls. And if you pass high school you can almost always get into a lower-tier public school or a community college. Also, you have to combine that with straight-up Scam colleges that accept anybody.
Cram it in your cram whole Lafleur!
You and I get that. The average person doesn't. That's why it's effective.
The supermajority of Americans take the standard deduction. You have to understand math to take the other routes. So removing those exemptions was not a negative to the majority of lower and middle class Americans.
It may have delayed the checks, but the checks stopped under Biden. And that's what people remember.
They were paying the credit out early during COVID, not simply including it in your taxes. To the average person it looks like more moola.
I know that, but most people don't care (or even worse agree with it). Trans issues are really only popular online; similar to homosexual issues in the 90s/00s.
Stop vs. Pause is a distinction without substance when 30% of the population is illiterate, and over 50% can't read or write at a 6th grade level or above.
Like I get it, I get what you're saying and it's technically correct. But to the rube who's going to be voting (or at least 30% who will), they just know that under Trump their student loans stopped; and then Biden restarted them.