I’ve seen some people on here make some claims that the QB situation here is hopeless when it comes to Williams or Maye. That we’ll never be able to draft and develop a QB. I also see the other side where people say the draft is a complete gamble, and no one really knows if someone’s game will translate to the NFL. I also saw someone as the honest question:
“Do the Bears fail at drafting and developing QB's more than the rest of the league?”
I’m a lifelong sports fan, but a relatively new Bear’s fan (I have my reasons for recently becoming a Bear’s fan… not the point of the post). I didn’t know the answer to the question, so thought I’d do a bit of digging into draft data and share.
A couple caveats before I jump into it:
- I’ve only included data since the 1990 draft. I had to draw the line somewhere, so I picked the start of a decade that I figured would be relevant to most of the sub.
- Pure data lacks context, and context is important. Not all drafts are equal and not all teams enter drafts with the same priorities. Trades happen. FA happens. The numbers represent imperfect humans who have been subjectively scouted and drafted by other imperfect humans.
Lastly... to answer the question, we really need to look at it as two parts.
- How much draft capital has each team allocated to finding their QB?
- How successful has each team been at turning that draft capital into productive NFL QB's?
This post looks only at part 1 because it can be objectively determined with data, for the most part.
Part 2 is infinitely harder to evaluate because a lot of it is subjective and up for debate. That's also what makes it way more fun. It's what fuels lively discussions over beers between friends and rivals. It's what separates great front offices and coaching staffs from raw analytics and predictions. It's the annual narratives of draft busts, as well as those of Mr. Irrelevant and TB12, picked at 199. It's the human side of the game that I'm hoping gets fleshed out in the comments.
Now, for some numbers (data courtesy of drafthistory.com):
- # of QB’s drafted in the 1st round (89 total):
- 5 – CLE, WAS
- 4 – CHI, CIN, DEN, IND, JAX, NYJ, TEN
- 3 – ARZ, BAL, BUF, CAR, DET, HOU, LAC, MIN, SF, TB
- 2 – ATL, GB, LAR, LV, MIA, NE, NYG, PHI, PIT, SEA
- 1 – KC
- 0 – DAL, NO
- # of QB’s drafted top 15 (66 total):
- 4 – CIN, IND, JAX, TEN
- 3 – ARZ, CAR, CHI, DET, HOU, LAC, NYJ, WAS
- 2 – ATL, CLE, LAR, MIA, MIN, NE, NYG, PHI, SF, TB
- 1 – BUF, DEN, KC, LV, PIT, SEA
- 0 – BAL, DAL, GB, NO
- # of QB’s drafted top 11, AKA Justin Field’s cutoff (61 total):
- 4 – CIN, IND, JAX, TEN
- 3 – ARZ, CAR, DET, LAC, NYJ
- 2 – ATL, CHI, CLE, HOU, LAR, MIA, NYG, PHI, SF, TB, WAS
- 1 – BUF, DEN, KC, LV, MIN, NE, PIT, SEA
- 0 – BAL, DAL, GB, NO
- # of QB’s drafted top 10 (57 total):
- 4 – CIN, IND, JAX, TEN
- 3 – ARZ, CAR, DET, LAC, NYJ
- 2 – ATL, CLE, HOU, LAR, MIA, NYG, PHI, SF, TB, WAS
- 1 – BUF, CHI, KC, LV, NE, SEA
- 0 – BAL, DAL, DEN, GB, MIN, NO, PIT
- # of QB’s drafted top 5 (44 total):
- 4 – IND
- 3 – CAR, CIN, NYJ, TEN
- 2 – ATL, CLE, DET, HOU, JAX, LAC, LAR, PHI, SF, WAS
- 1 – ARZ, CHI, LV, MIA, NE, NYG, SEA, TB
- 0 – BAL, BUF, DAL, DEN, GB, KC, MIN, NO, PIT
- # of times a team has drafted the best available QB in the draft (34 total):
- 3 – CIN, IND, LAR
- 2 – ATL, CAR, CLE, JAX, SF, TEN
- 1 – ARZ, BUF, CHI, DET, HOU, LAC, LV, NE, NYJ, PIT, SEA, TB, WAS
- 0 – DAL, DEN, GB, KC, MIA, MIN, NO, NYG, PHI
- # of QB’s drafted 1st overall (21 total):
- 3 – IND
- 2 – CAR, CIN, CLE, LAR
- 1 – ARZ, ATL, DET, HOU, JAX, LAC, LV, NE, SF, TB
- 0 – BAL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DEN, GB, KC, MIA, MIN, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, SEA, TEN, WAS
Fun facts:
- QB’s taken at 11th since 1990: Daunte Culpepper (MN, 1999), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, 2004), Jay Cutler (DEN, 2006), Justin Fields (CHI, 2021)
- QB has not been selected with the 9th pick since 1990.
- Most common first name of drafted QB’s since 1990: Matt (11), Mike (9), Jeff (8), John (8), Josh (8), Ryan (7).
I didn't want to include full lists for everything, but I did include photos of the lists of the JF1 cutoff, as well as top 5 1990, sorted by team.
I think the data is interesting... It's clear that some teams have been very lucky, and hit on their only real shot at drafting a franchise QB in the last 34 years (KC with Mahomes, BUF with Allen). Others needed to try a number of times before succeeding (CIN, JAX). Others haven't really spent high draft capital on QB's at all (DAL, NO), maybe due to philosophy, or maybe due need.
As it pertains to the Bears, it seems like there's some recency bias from Trubisky and Fields. It seems like we've taken an average, or slightly below average number of shots at finding a QB, relative to the rest of the league. Now as far as developing that draft capital... I'll let everyone duke it out in the comments.
I personally like JF1, and would like nothing better than to see him succeed, but would it be all that surprising if he didn't? I don't think so. One only needs to browse the draft records to find many examples of QB's who were drafted higher who have accomplished less. Maybe JF1 will show us what we need to see in the last 7 games, but if he doesn't, can we at least take one more hopeful shot at a top prospect QB before we call it hopeless? That would put is in the top half of the league for high value draft picks spent on a field general.
Now, regardless of what happens behind center, for that individual to success, we need a new coaching staff.
