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Yeah, and it's been shown that establishment democrats don't really have the appeal they need to do so. No one gives a shit because they aren't representing their desires. They're representing, at best, status quo. If you haven't noticed that's not exactly popular at the moment.
That's exactly the question. I personally thought in 2024 that a paedophile, senile 80yo felon who already lost an election (even from the incumbent position) already wouldn't be exactly popular either, but here we are.
US presidential elections are so unpredictable, because there's only two actual candidates in the race, since there's no run-off or anything like that. There's no real way to know what's exactly popular at the moment until it's too late.
Did Harris lose because she's a black woman? Did she lose due to unpolar positions? Did she lose because of poor campaign management? Did she lose because russian bots helped Trump? Did she lose because people "had enough of woke"? Did she lose because people just love dementia?
It's really hard to know, and likely its all of the above to certain degree.
Has it? Biden thoroughly beat Trump. The Kamala was thoroughly beaten.
Biden is very much so establishment
And people realized how shit it was. It wasn't working for them.
Biden barely won. I don't know what alternate reality you're remembering, but that was a squeaker of an election hinging on a margin of less than 50k votes. GA, AZ, and WI were all won by less than 1%, and flipping them would be a loss.
That was closer than Trump's win over Clinton.
Yes some swing states were close, that's basically every election.
Now if you look at the numbers Biden had 306 electoral votes while Trump had 232. GA has 16 electoral votes, AZ has 11, and WI has 10. If Biden lost all 3 of those states and Trump won them instead it would have resulted in a 269 to 269 vote tie in the electoral college. Meaning a vote in the House of Representatives would decide the election. Which was majority Democrat, meaning a win for Biden. So even in a made up scenario Biden still wins.
And we're not even talking about the difference in popular vote which was significant. Sure it doesn't always decide the election, but I believe it provides a good gauge on how the American people feel.
No, it really isn't. 50k votes between win an loss is the closest election in decades. Closer than when Trump beat Clinton, and way closer than Trump beating Harris. Not since Bush v. Gore has the margin been closer.
The reason why a tie is a loss is that it's not a vote of the representatives as a whole, it's a vote of the states, as decided by the reps. Republicans had a majority of reps in 26 states.
Fair enough on the contingent election. Something only possible if you change 3 whole state votes. Seems pretty unlikely to me.
If we go down that train of thought the there's no reason the states that barely went Trump could then go the other way.
Which is why the popular vote is the more important metric for determining how the American populace as a whole felt about the canidate. Especially considering that election had one of the largest voter turnouts in US history
Hi! Welcome to the present! It’s 2025, did you just arrive?
Judging by how you behave you're not fucking a lot my dude.