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Russia can't even handle Ukraine. What are they going to do against the rest of NATO, even without the US?
They aren't going to invade the UK, but they want them out of the EU. You sabotage your enemy as much as possible, even if you're not going to war immediately. Sun Tzu stuff, when your enemy is larger than you, divide them. Take down the strongest military alliance (or cut in half if you want) in history thats been in place for 70 years, yeah that's a huge massive jizz in your pants accomplisment. Your entire framing is frankly wrong,
When the US briefly revoked command and control (think, satellite connections, real time intelligence, missile warning etc) Ukraine suffered heavy casualties quickly. Were thr US to walk away, neither Ukraine or NATO has those same capabilities. NATO minus US vs Russia, in the immediate future would be incredibly bloody and possibly fall in Russia's favour.
Russia doesn't have those capabilities either. They duck tape consumer grade GPS units for cars into their fighter jets built in the 70s. The war in the Ukraine has exhausted aka destroyed a huge amount of Russian equipment. Tanks, jets, ships, and fucking subs. They are using fucking donkeys for Christ sake to supply the front line with ammo.
NATO minus the USA vs Russia would be tough but if one or two NATO countries fight like Ukraine has then Russia is toast. And if NATO sticks together that is.
Two things can be simultaneously true:
Russia has suffered substantial loss of materiel etc.
Russia still has effective command and control systems. Whereas the EU depends heavily on America for advanced targeting (think the Ukranian long range missile strikes on refineries in recent months.)
Here's a fairly accessible article on some of the difficulties/timelines for a post American NATO:
(Notable quote from someone wiser than myself "We’re almost completely dependent on U.S. intelligence for satellite and everything that goes with it")
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/02/25/mind-the-gaps-europes-to-do-list-for-defense-without-the-us/
Imagine you are doing a tarzan vine jump, and I cut your vine while you are jumping then say "See, you wouldn't be able to do it without my vines!!!". Yeah man, timing matters.
Break it up using his puppet in the white house.
Well, Russia is sort of holding back. They have tactical nukes, not sure how many of those nato has without the US. And going ballistic doesn't end well for anyone. But Russia need the land of major nato members. They will pick on non-nato countries mostly, and more often they will do it by cutting off trade routes and such. Maybe they use thier now seasoned military to pick off some minor nato members, just to distract Nato from everything else. With the US pulling back from the international stage, Russia and Chine can divvy up a lot of the world.
Not using nukes isn't holding back its not inviting armageddon.
The tactical ones are a grey area. They can be small enough not to end the world. They can also have far less long term effects than the larger and older ones. In short, you could nuke a military base as apposed to a city. They can be delivered as an artilery shell. So if Russia used one. I doubt the world would immediately luanch thier strategic arsenal in response.
It's dubious that they have useful nukes available to just drop in an shell to start with. For practical purposes their nukes are fairly large and there are other considerations. Poorly maintained shit may malfunction creating additional doubt as to their military might and it might trigger additional aid by the rest of the world. They can't actually fight NATO so actions have to be carefully calibrated so as not to bring the rest of the world or even just more of their aid into the fray lest it become even more expensive or even impossible to win.
I will say I don't know what Russia specifically has in thier arsenal beyond the general "tactical nukes". But artillery shell or missle... it makes little difference. Tactical nukes are relatively new, so aren't much of an age concern as the bigger older stuff. Functionality concerns, only they really know. And I agree, which is why I said they are holding back. But if the situation changes, they may not need to hold back.