this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2026
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Don't count on it. These things don't just zip along in their orbits. LEO is crowded. They have to maneuver to avoid collisions... a lot.
If Starlink or any other mega-constellation company loses control of their satellites for any reason, there could be collisions. A recent study (Note: PDF) suggests that a sufficiently powerful CME could cause a runaway Kessler Syndrome in as little as 2.8 days if the loss of control lasts that long.
And the orbits of that debris would still decay within a decade in LEO.
even less for Starlink
What's your point? We would have a LEO like a minefield for 10 years.
Eh, i'm not so sure. I just did a quick doodle.
My opinion is that when a collision happens, it's probably very unlikely for each fragment to actually stay on a stable orbit around Earth. Chances are high that it gains a lot of energy and the orbit is significantly distorted. Now, if an orbit is already very close to Earth, that means that any distortion will make it not fit tightly around Earth anymore, instead will make it go elliptic and therefore on trajectory of collision with Earth. The only way a fragment would not do that is if it's accelerated perfectly sideways, in which case it would continue to circle around Earth for 10 years before deorbiting due to atmospheric friction. So, the cascading is a bit limited.
I don't think you are familiar with orbital mechanics. A collision would barely disturb an orbit.
then are the fragments dangerous?
The fragments are dangerous to other things in low earth orbit. They will burn up before they hit the ground here. So really it might be for the best because I would rather see a world where every single satellite is destroyed at this point.
Definitely.
I mean with proper regulation or would be slightly better. If they can maneuver to avoid collisions they can likes deorbit themselves at a quicker pace.
The main issue is if ever they went under someone would buy it, or try to buy it, at a discount. So they likely wouldn't go away even if Star link went under.