this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2026
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Eh, i'm not so sure. I just did a quick doodle.
My opinion is that when a collision happens, it's probably very unlikely for each fragment to actually stay on a stable orbit around Earth. Chances are high that it gains a lot of energy and the orbit is significantly distorted. Now, if an orbit is already very close to Earth, that means that any distortion will make it not fit tightly around Earth anymore, instead will make it go elliptic and therefore on trajectory of collision with Earth. The only way a fragment would not do that is if it's accelerated perfectly sideways, in which case it would continue to circle around Earth for 10 years before deorbiting due to atmospheric friction. So, the cascading is a bit limited.
I don't think you are familiar with orbital mechanics. A collision would barely disturb an orbit.
then are the fragments dangerous?
The fragments are dangerous to other things in low earth orbit. They will burn up before they hit the ground here. So really it might be for the best because I would rather see a world where every single satellite is destroyed at this point.
Definitely.