Yall are worried about banks when a massive bet on AI makes up over 30% of the S&P 500?
this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2025
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Too big to fail man. That's getting bailed out. Its a bet that cant be lost.
Too big to save.
The ammount of money in these companies for AI (~~4.5B~~ 3.9T for Micosoft alone) is too much for even the US to bail them out.
Edit: Double checked the number -- I was off by 3 orders of magnitude because these numbers are just dumb.
- “Help me Uncle Sam! I’m broke”
- “Best I can do is cover commodities, material, and payroll expenses”
Well, one can dream.
If you didn't read the article, the concern is that mid-sized banks have done a lot of lending to outsized customers who have screwed them, and the market is taking this traditional indicator of a traditional bubble, with all the same dynamics as 2008, as a signal of market instability.
The AI circular economy is not entirely over-leveraged debt. Over-leveraged debt is a very traditional form of economic trouble, so it's more clearly seen as "oooh, we got some shit going down here!"
Crashes can precipitate from small points of failure that are intertwined with bigger investments. The market is like a powder keg with people wanting to keep money in as far up as possible and wanting to pull out to avoid being the bigger loser holding the bag, so it makes sense people will look into points of critical failure where such starts.
Judging by last time around, shit will spread from "bad industries" to the rest as the money necessary to cover the bad bets gets pulled out from saner investments.
This time around as there are at least 2 "oh shit!" bubbles (AI and unregulated car loans) plus quite a lot of smaller bubbles (such as realestate), the risk is that after any of the big bubbles explodes, via mechanisms such as the one I describe above the other big one is triggered and explodes next and then that in turn blows a bunch of the smaller ones.
Imagine the chaos after the various over-indebtness bubbles blow (not just car loans, but also things like the highest level of credit card debt since 2007), the AI bubble blows and the realestate bubble blows.
The combination of two bubbles - overindebtness and banking overextending on loans, mainly via unregulated second-hand car loaning companies AND the AI one - blowing at the same time (or one blowing and causing the other to also blow as a consequence) is the really scary stuff:
It would basically be a smaller version of the 2008 Finance Industry Crash TOGETHER with a larger version of the 2000 Tech Crash.
Where can we park our investments if we don’t believe in A I?
International markets might be worth looking into. Or bonds.
Europe
0.6% is not really news, is it? S&P 500 went up 0.53% the next day
Banks, huh? Could it be the invisible recession that is starting to depression?