More scientific source on space.com:
https://www.space.com/aurora-alert-solar-flare-eruption-cannibal-cme-november-30-december-1
this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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This most extreme level can cause complete HF (high frequency) radio blackouts on the entire sunlit side of the Earth, lasting for a number of hours.
So, is that really it? A HF radio blackout? I can't imagine most of us would even notice if HF were disrupted. I don't know the physics involved, but if VHF/UHF were hit it would be a much bigger problem.
The carrington event knocked out telegraphs all over the world in the 1800s.
That’s the most powerful geomagnetic storm on record. It induced so much current in the telegraph wires that they literally melted.
In the 1800s that wasn’t a huge deal. But if it happened today, billions of dollars of electrical infrastructure could be rendered useless, and stockpiles of replacements are already non existent. It would take years to recover.
But this is not that strong of a storm, so I doubt it’ll do anything but cause some pretty lights and maybe ground a few flights due to communications issues.
And I’m sure any affected areas and satellites will be shutdown for that period to reduce any operational risk.
So less planes falling and more planes delayed.
Same for network communications as items are routed around certain areas or via some methods like fiber vs others.
Planes wouldn't just fall out of the sky anyways lmao. Even if planes lost communications completely they are still operational flying machines. It would just be very difficult to coordinate planes landing at that point. I don't know about the protocols, but I'm sure there exist failsafes to coordinate air traffic in the event of radio communication loss.
It would be a bit more serious than a loss of communication. The electronics in the plane would be completely melted. Including the ones responsible for controlling the plane.
Airplanes are designed to withstand the current, voltage, and EMP effects of lightning strikes, whose local fields are several orders of magnitude more powerful than anything the sun has ever thrown at the earth.
Any solar-originated pulse strong enough to "completely melt" any electronics in the plane will kill everyone and everything on the daylight-side of the planet, and probably strip the entire atmosphere.
Why and how would the electronics in an airplane be melted? Airplanes are naturally a Faraday cage, and all the components are going to be EMF shielded anyways.
The only thing an airplane would need to worry about with a solar storm is the increase in radiation exposure, and even then it's only relevant for the Flight crew who have limits on how much radiation they can be exposed to per OSHA.
That's not how earlths magnetic field induced current works...
The conductors on a plane are short, the induced current is tiny. Significant currents are produced in long conductors (transmission wires). Severely damaging the infrastructure they connect to, and potentially themselves.
True and I didn’t mean to imply it. Went for the hyperbole you tend to see and did a poor job with it after all.
I edited the post to use that URL instead, thanks!
@j0hn@j0hn@lemmy.world you can swap the link out, just edit the old one into the body so the context is there for anyone talking about it
also I think the bigger news story here is an increased chance of Auroras 🌌 Take a peek outside if you live somewhere northern and clear-skied
I hope someone can ELI5. I mean, we're told that sunlight/etc we see is 8 minutes old - it took 8 minutes to get from the sun to the earth. The radiation, light, etc all travel at the speed of light, neither slower nor faster.
If we can see anything on the sun, it happened 8 minutes ago. It's not like we're looking out over a Kansas field and see a tornado coming.
Further, there's this from a quick Google (while attempting to answer this question myself), from Oct 13 2023:
"How much warning do we have for solar storms? So it should come as no surprise that a team at NASA has been busily applying AI models to solar storm data to develop an early warning system that they think could give the planet about 30 minutes' notice before a potentially devastating solar storm hits a particular area."
So how are we getting a notice one or two days in advance here? Is the sun currently ejecting matter into space, intersecting the place in our orbit we'll occupy tomorrow (or the next day)? Or is this like predicting a volcanic eruption, basing it on other observable behavior?
CMEs and solar flares do not travel at the speed of light, as they are not light
The charged particles that affect our electrical and electronic systems have mass and therefore cannot travel at the speed of light... We can see the visible light effects of a flare and know that the slower-moving particles that will cause actual damage are on the way.
That was a very succinct explanation; two sentence refresher course. Thank you!
I would surmise they're talking about a system to let us know where the worst effects are happening so people can prepare. This article says the fastest storms take 15-18 hours to arrive and most are slower. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
Yes, it's not just light, it's better to understand it as an ejection of super heated plasma. It is mass ( actually called a coronal mass ejection ) and maybe kinda comparable in ELI5 concept to a volcano eruption.
So, the thing is we can't really predict CMEs. What we can do is observing them by satellites like SOHO or SDO (actually you can also check these data, check for jHelioViewer). While light indeed needs roughly 8 minutes to travel from the Sun, the ejected plasma is much slower than that, it travels at a comfy pace of 1000km/s or so. So it takes about a day to reach Earth (you can do the precise numbers as a homework or use Wolfram alpha to cheat), so from the observations we have roughly this time to do anything.
ChatGPT says:
This delay is due to the fact that solar storms consist of charged particles (mostly electrons and protons) ejected from the Sun. These particles are not electromagnetic radiation (like light), so they don’t travel at the speed of light. Instead, they are propelled by the solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles that flows outward from the Sun.
The solar wind travels at varying speeds, but it typically takes several days for the charged particles associated with a solar storm to travel from the Sun to Earth. The exact time depends on the speed of the solar wind and the distance between the Sun and Earth.
So, although light from the Sun reaches us in just over eight minutes, the charged particles involved in solar storms take longer to traverse the vast distance of space between the Sun and Earth.
*downvoters be like “oh no, it answered the question successfully, how can I get triggered emotionally by this?!” Like seriously guys you realize it’s basically a calculator for language? what the fuck are you hating on?
Excellent! Thank you!
there are satellites orbiting the Sun, much as how we have satellites orbiting the Earth to help predict our weather. same principle
Now this will be a "Internet detox day" done right 😅
I’m supposed to be on an airplane on December 1st. If the storm ends up happening on the 1st instead of the 30th, could that potentially mess with air traffic controllers and radio comms in the plane?
Possible but extremely unlikely.
Hey guess what
Oh, great
Is it only India that's impacted by these events?
Going back to the late 1900s I don't recall any solar storm/flare having an impact on US electronics/communications like every article written has made claim to.
So not just India; though the odds of impact on an individual is up there with getting bit by a shark while traveling down the highway.
I'm looking for something that had an impact, like the 2003 Northeast US Blackout.
If someone had told me (back then) that it was caused by a Solar Event, I'd of believed them based on every article written up to that point.
Yeah, most articles you read were just written to get more click and making it sound apocalyptic/disastrous drives clicks. They are focusing more on the worst possible outcome and less on previous instances.
NASA and weather experts are issuing a warning about an upcoming solar storm projected to strike Earth on November 30. This relatively minor storm is anticipated to disrupt radio and GPS signals.
Meh
We sure it didn't hit today? My GPS was going apeshit when I was driving around downtown a half hour ago.
How will I find my way around the house without GPS!?!?!?!?!!? Says a really rich person somewhere.
As a scientist I’m meh, as a human being I’m enjoying the conspiracies and hype, though!