CanadaPolitics

(CBC News via YouTube)

There is a clear pattern to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff negotiations. Andrew Chang explains four key steps to Trump's playbook and breaks down to what extent they work — and at what cost.

This article points out something about Carney's leadership style that I find intriguing.

https://open.substack.com/pub/billhulet/p/daring-to-lead-from-behind?r=4ot1q2&showWelcomeOnShare=true

With more than 23,000 civil servants represented by the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees primed to strike, the ball is now in the United Conservative Party Government’s court.

With more than 23,000 civil servants represented by the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees primed to strike, the ball is now in the United Conservative Party Government’s court. Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner (Photo: Alberta Newsroom/Flickr).

At a noon-hour press conference yesterday, AUPE President Guy Smith announced the union’s strike mandate, which can only be described as resounding – 90.1 per cent approving strike action if necessary with 80 per cent of the unionized direct employees of the provincial government casting a ballot.

So, over the next four months, unionized government employees can walk out any time after 72-hours’ notice. Meanwhile, earlier this month the government applied for and received permission to lock out AUPE’s members in the event of a breakdown in negotiations. So the government theoretically could also pull the trigger after 72 hours’ notice.

At the union’s short news conference yesterday, Mr. Smith said AUPE had no intention of rushing into a strike. “We are determined to get a deal at the table.” Meanwhile, back at the Legislature, Finance Minister Nate Horner, responding to an Opposition question, stood up and said, “if they’re serious about coming back to the table, we’ll be there.”

But here’s the thing, at this point if the government is serious about actually getting a negotiated deal with AUPE, they’re going to have to stop taunting the union with offers symbolically lower than those in settlements with other unions, notably the public-sector deal with United Nurses of Alberta.

So the question at this point is whether the government of Premier Danielle Smith (who is no relation to either AUPE President Smith or UNA President Heather Smith) can act like grownups long enough to get a deal that won’t make it look as if they’ve fumbled another important file. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith – would probably rather be complaining about the federal government (Photo: Alberta Newsroom/Flickr).

On the other hand, there are certainly players in the UCP Caucus who wouldn’t mind a fight with as union because they think they can simultaneously look tough and deflect attention from that dodgy contracts scandal, a measles epidemic, and the UCP’s march toward privatization in health care, all of which must be generating unease among voters.

However, as long as there are Liberals in power in Ottawa, this government would always prefer to focus on a fight with the feds, a factor that might incline the UCP toward trying to reach a deal with AUPE. Indeed, the government published yet another public statement yesterday complaining pointlessly about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet picks.

The union noted in a bargaining update for members yesterday that “we are currently dealing with an employer that has proven to be particularly uncooperative throughout this process. Recently, the Government of Alberta’s spokesperson dismissed our position as ‘rhetoric,’ despite the fact that we are advocating for wages that reflect the real inflation affecting our province.”

“We remain steadfast in our commitment to good faith negotiations and will continue to push for an equitable agreement,” the AUPE update said. “We call on the government to move beyond dismissive rhetoric and engage constructively with us to secure a fair and sustainable outcome.”

Another factor in these negotiations is that this is the first time Alberta civil servants have had a legal right to strike, thanks to the repeal in 2017 of unconstitutional legislation that had banned all public-sector strikes in Alberta.

So what’s likely going to be required to reach a deal?

Well, to move things forward, the government is going to have to up its offer at least to annual pay increases of 3 per cent a year over four years – which is what the government emphasizes in UNA’s agreement that was overwhelmingly ratified by the nurse union’s members in voting that took place on April 2.

In a statement on April 3, UNA explained that when the dust had settled, the new nurses’ agreement would result in “pay increases of approximately 20 per cent over the life of the four-year Provincial Collective Agreement, plus significant increases in premium pay and other benefits.”

But at least an offer of four years of 3 per cent annual pay increases could get things moving in the right direction, although some sweeteners for civil servants would still be required to reach a deal.

So far, though, the government has offered increases of 3 per cent, 3 per cent, 2.75 per cent and 2.75 per cent, which AUPE clearly views as insulting.

So stand by for developments.

Ric McIver, former Calgary city councillor and longtime MLA, named Speaker of the Alberta Legislature

With former Speaker Nathan Cooper off to serve as Alberta’s trade representative in Washington, veteran Progressive Conservative and UCP minister Ric McIver was elected Speaker of the Alberta Legislature yesterday. The Legislature’s new Speaker, Calgary-Hayes MLA Ric McIver (Photo: David J. Climenhaga).

Earlier in the day, Mr. McIver resigned as municipal affairs minister before defeating the Opposition NDP’s candidate, Edmonton-Manning MLA Heather Sweet, for the right to occupy the Speaker’s chair.

A Calgary city councillor from 1998 to 2010, when he left to unsuccessfully run for mayor, Mr. McIver has represented Calgary-Hays since 2012. He is an old time Tory – which is to say that while it’s often not obvious he may actually have a progressive bone or two in his body. As a result, it may come as something of a relief to him to no longer have to stand up in the Legislature and defend the Smith Government’s MAGA policies.

As Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt observed on Twitter/X yesterday, “This is a big blow to the UCP government. McIver was a major fixer of problems.” And heaven knows, the UCP has created lots of problems that need fixing!

At 66, Mr. McIver will be in a position to retire after the next election if he feels like going out on a high note. In addition to the Canada Pension Plan, he’ll even qualify for an official portrait painted by an artist of his choice to be displayed in the Rotunda of the Legislative Building.

So firstly, Canada has never had open border policy. The UK is just adopting what we currently have

Secondly, the only politician who was advocating for open borders was Pierre Poilievre and he lost his seat

Which means this article is misplaced

In one of the most consequential political shifts in recent memory, Starmer has charted a new and unapologetically realist course on immigration. It is a striking departure not only from his party’s past rhetoric, but from the dominant dogma that has guided western policy-making for the better part of three decades: that mass immigration is always an economic benefit, a social good, and a moral imperative.

This isn’t journalism; it’s covering your ears, closing your eyes, and shouting “lalala”

Firstly, it ignores that right wingers are the ones pushing for higher immigration not for moral superiority but for the economic benefit of it keep costs down

Secondly, the societal good it does is that lower wages meaning billionaires will be more likely to bring business to a place where they can make more money for themselves.

Thirdly, also for the betterment of society is that it helps boomers because more people paying taxes means they are able to retire, able to receive healthcare, and because they were terrible at saving it allows them to sell their 100k houses for 1m+ so they can afford retirement

It is common sense, but in Canada, it still isn’t common currency.

It is just a rehash of “it’s happening in the UK” until this point but I wanted to pay mention to the term “common sense”

This is a term politicians and now apparently media use when they can’t justify a position

What is common sense? Being able to speak English in UK.

Well obviously it is common currency in Canada because part of getting a work permit is proving that you can speak English or French. To get a study permit you need to show an even higher level of proficiency

Even as we face the unmistakable consequences of population-driven pressure on housing, health care, and wages, immigration remains a third rail in Canadian politics. Raising concerns, no matter how grounded in data or lived experience, is still treated as impolite at best and inflammatory at worst.

As I pointed out in the opening, the only politician to make these big scary claims you say are normal lost his seat

Now you could focus on Singh being our most anti-immigration leader losing his seat to back up this claim but the author doesn’t mention him

Instead the author makes claim after claim with nothing to back it up

As recently as 2022, Canada was adding more than a million people per year through a combination of permanent immigration, international student intake, temporary worker programs, and asylum claims. This is not coordinated nation-building, it is unmanaged growth.

Well based on your endorsement of the UK adopting our system you seem to be okay with this and as pointed out we already have language requirements but

Raising concerns, no matter how grounded in data or lived experience

You started with this and still didn’t provide anything

Where are the stats or experiences that tie 1 million immigrants to unmanaged growth?

But the effects are not merely economic. They are social, cultural, and civil as well. On the streets of Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, diaspora groups now square off over foreign conflicts with disturbing frequency. Protests turn into brawls. Schools become battlegrounds. Religious institutions face threats and vandalism not for what they preach here in Canada, but for the politics of distant homelands.

I imagine this is about Israel/Palestine but where is the proof that you heralded as having? Where are the references?

I can reference Canada’s role in WW1, 2, and Vietnam as historical references to show this isn’t caused by immigration and existed beforehand. Canada’s peacekeeping reputation (although fraudulent) rests on us being involved in conflicts we aren’t part of

Despite a decade of record population growth, Canada’s real GDP per capita has stagnated. Productivity is declining. Infrastructure lags far behind need. The promise of a growing economy has not translated into growing prosperity for the average Canadian.

This is a good thing, we added more people and our per capita gdp didn’t go down. That means we grew enough to accommodate these people that the author claims are unmanaged, not just contradicting themselves but still lacking the evidence and facts they claim they have to back up this claim

The New Democratic Party offers no meaningful dissent, still clinging to the romanticism of borderless globalism. And the Conservative party, though beginning to voice legitimate concerns about housing supply and integration, has yet to present a coherent and politically confident plan to reform the immigration system.

Straight up false. The NDP plan was to tie a payment to immigration so if any future government wanted to bring in an immigrant they would have to pay the province that settles them. This vastly reduces the ability of the Federal government to bring immigrants in

The Cons plan was to remove funding for roads unless the municipality increased it’s population by 5% every year

If even Britain’s Labour government, long a standard-bearer of liberal cosmopolitanism, can shift course, what’s stopping Canada’s political class?

Idiots like you that pretend the UK isn’t just adopting our system

The reckoning is coming. If Britain can face it head-on, surely we can too. Better to shape the future on our own terms than to be overwhelmed by its arrival.

What does this even mean

One of the things Mark Carney wants to do is make the civil service more efficient. What could this look like? Here's an article that explains how one nation has already done this: https://open.substack.com/pub/billhulet/p/the-estonian-zero-bureaucracy-project?r=4ot1q2&showWelcomeOnShare=true

#Bureaucracy #RedTape #Efficiency #CivilService

On Tuesday Prime Minister Carney is going to unveil his new cabinet. A lot of people will be talking about it's make-up, but from my experience the most important issue is going to be its size. Here's an article from Substack that goes through my reasoning.

What do you think?

https://open.substack.com/pub/billhulet/p/a-hot-take-on-carneys-cabinet-announcement?r=4ot1q2&showWelcomeOnShare=true

#Carney #Trump #Cabinet

cross-posted from: https://rss.ponder.cat/post/178944

An official with Elections Canada says the seat for a Quebec riding has flipped from the Bloc Québécois to the Liberals by a single vote after a judicial recount was completed.

From this RSS feed

Carney says there will be more meetings. He’ll bring the matches next time if things don’t go well.

Ranked ballots could have given Liberals majority: prof

In 2025, Miljan says a ranked ballot may have helped the Liberals eke out a majority — the party landed at 169 seats, falling just three short of a majority government.

"I don't think it would have made a big difference, except probably in the few ridings where there were three-way splits, where you might have gotten a few more NDP seats and probably equally more Liberal seats," she said. "In that respect, you would have had a Liberal majority, most likely."

Just reading up on these as the conservatives seem pretty right wing especially during this last election. Then I read the PPC description, they seem pretty similar at a glance. Did they have further distinction before and just recently some of the actors of the Conservatives become pushing towards the PPC ideals?

Poilievre in probably one of his smuggiest of moments

It's great that Pierre lost and he probably lost to someone better, but were there better candidates for the common people on the ballot? How are liberals as a whole for Canada? Would another party have been better - greens for example?

I've seen a community about better vote counting system, so it seems Canada is still a first past the post country?

Prime Minister Jean Chretien grabbed a protester and wrestled him to the ground, it has become known as "The Shawinigan Handshake".

Free form predictions, imaginary internet points awarded for being closest on seat count, popular vote, turnout, etc. Predict whatever you want! Timestamps before 8pm Atlantic time please :)

In every riding we reported on—from Taiaiako’n–Parkdale–High Park to Toronto–St. Paul’s to Bowmanville–Oshawa North to across Peel—the pattern has been the same. Most Liberal and NDP candidates have been willing to sit and answer questions. Every Conservative candidate has ignored or declined our requests for interviews.

To be clear, this issue isn’t specific to The Local. Toronto–St. Paul’s candidate Don Stewart didn’t just ignore us, he turned down The Toronto Star and National Post. Across ridings, and across media outlets—from the CBC to Global News to sympathetic conservative newspapers like the National Post—candidates from the Conservative Party are simply refusing to talk with the press.