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I’m not worried that Russia is going to launch a nuke and destroy humanity by starting World War III. I’m worried that a splinter group is going to seize control of a Russian nuke, fire it, and destroy humanity by starting World War III.
this post was submitted on 29 May 2025
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Honestly I doubt that Russia has maintained their arsenal. Nuclear warheads must be maintained because the fissile cores wear out due to the natural halflife of uranium. So after X number of years (super-dooper state secret stuff, but it's like every 10 years based on napkin math I did in my undergrad) the cores must be replaced.
All that said - I think Russia's nuclear program is likely not in a functional state. The rockets work. They'll do a publicized underground test every few years to show off capability. But something like nine in ten of their warheads will not reach criticality and misfire today if actually used. That's still not a fun scenario, tens of millions would die. But it's not nuclear apocalypse level that they use for defense posturing.
People keep bringing this up, and it's likely true that most of them dont work anymore, but there is a no way in hell they haven't kept up maintenance on a few.
One tenth of their deployed ones would be 170, and even 17 would be enough to start a nuclear war.
The takeaway should be that they likely don't have the resources to back up their posturing, and are unlikely to try starting a nuclear war because of it (in theory).
Terrorist sizing those warheads don't have to back anything up, their job is done as soon as the bomb goes off.
90% chance the one they get is a dud, which is comforting.
But even if they fire a dud, the receiving part will see an incoming ICBM and won't wait to check whether it's a dud out not.
This, this this.
IIRC (forgive me I haven't looked at this in ages) the USSR (lets face it, Russia is using their old shit, just like they're using in Ukraine) had tritium based weapons. The half-life of tritium is just over 12 years. The USSR fell apart in 1991, so to make math easy lets use 1990 as the year their arsenal all got a nice refresh. 35 years have passed since 1990. That means they are on their 3rd full refresh of nuclear fissile material since the fall of the USSR. The budget for Russias nuclear force is a fraction of the US's budget. There's no fucking way they've refreshed 5500 warheads 3 times since the Cold War.
For everyone else on here, it's not JUST the bombs they have to maintain either. Those missiles need changed out, fuel needs swapped in and out, components in those missiles go bad because of the radiation, the facilities themselves that house said missiles need maintenance, the subs need maintenance, etc etc etc.
Russia doesn't have 5500 nukes. What the actual number is, I have no fucking idea. But it's nowhere near that number. I'm sure people in intelligence services know.
The rockets sorta work, iirc there's like a 20% published failure rate and that's backed up with the fun videos of icbms purging their tanks while doing backflips falling to earth.
This is the plot of a Tom Clancy novel… As a suggestion, its not the worst thing Ive read
On season 5 of "Jack Ryan", Jack discovers a secret plot from Iran to detonate a nuclear device in Riyadh and destabilize the world by invading Saudi Arabia. Can Jack and his unusually attractive Persian female counterpart stop the rogue fanatic group from launching world war three? Only on Prime® this fall!
Theres 5 Seasons of Jack Ryan⁉️
I think I watched it, but it was just as boring as any other Prime content so I gave up and decided sleep was more entertaining.
There are 4 seasons, I just made up a plot for a mythical season 5. I only know there are 4 seasons, as Amazon keeps reminding me to continue watching from somewhere in season 2 where I fell asleep multiple times.
Are YOU Tom Clancy‽
unusually attractive Persian female counterpart
...played by Sofia Boutella, no doubt, who always absolutely kills every scene but inexplicably can't land a leading role.
I know what I said.
This is currently happening in the US. A deranged narcissistic mad man recently stole the presidency.
And we have a similar issue with a fascist with control of the nuclear arsenal in India, except he actually has popular support.
woah woah woah, hold your horses dude. What made you think nuclear arsenal in India is in fascist control
This is definitely something to worry about. I am also worried that we might be getting to the point where Kim will be getting Iskander's in exchange for more shells and equipment. Also, how many drones will it take to trade for just one plutonium core for Iran?
Hopefully there are enough safety measures in place.
Can someone explain why we havent seized control of their nukes and just set them off without launching them?
That requires invading them, but they have nukes.
No it doesn’t. It just involves tricking stupid people.
JFC they aren't giving up their nukes. You aren't going to do it with that 1 weird trick that diplomats hate.
No no let's hear him out, I want to hear his plan. This oughta be good..
Infiltrate with a small physical presence. Sabotage nuclear arsenal. Your spies pull back. Russia does a thing to trigger the sabotaged and poorly-maintained arsenal.
There are 1700 targets to hit
So it will take a while.
Well, I like your moxie at least.
why would people think otherwise after watching Russia's spectacle of incompetence in Ukraine?
Nukes are insanely expensive to maintain. It doesn't just apply to the warhead and delivery vehicle.
Hey Yuri, I'll bet you 5 rubles I can spit on that Lieutenant down there.
All bling no basics.