this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2025
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Microsoft reportedly estimated that Game Pass led to $300 million in lost sales of Black Ops 6, with 82% of copies sold being on the Game Pass-less PlayStation 5 (www.pcgamer.com)
submitted 14 hours ago by alessandro@lemmy.ca to c/pcgaming@lemmy.ca
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[–] definitemaybe@lemmy.ca 16 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

The article addresses a lot of the speculation about these numbers:

  • This is an internal estimate that was leaked to the gaming press, and so is likely designed to be an underestimate, if anything, since it makes the entire XBox division look bad for cannibalizing their own sales (although most likely this was a best estimate).
  • A whopping 82% of full-price sales of BO6 was on PS5, the one platform that does not have GamePass
  • Inflated piracy numbers are addressed directly by the writer, although no specifics are given in relation to this number since the modeling was not disclosed

So, I think a lot of other commenters are unreasonably dismissing this number as inflated when it's likely fairly accurate.

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 12 points 8 hours ago

The funniest part about this comment is that's how GAME pass has always worked. They offer it to titles for a lump cash payment in lieu of sales. Now that they own Activision, therefore BOPS6, they care about those lost sales.

When they didn't make enough software for the last decade for it to be a problem for their bottom line, they didn't.

But it sure as shit effected literally every game ever on Game Pass. It is and always has been a literal loss leader for every single game on it, they just now give a crap because one of those bigger games is finally theirs.

When Hi-fi rush exploded in popularity, it was because it was discovered on game pass. Where it then went on to be played by millions, while the team behind it made nothing, so Microsoft closed the studio. Literally because the game wasn't profitable enough after MS decided to force shadow drop it on game pass at launch.

But sure, BOPS6, "lost" them millions on Gamepass and they care about how Gamepass affects the sales of that title.

I've never seen a company speed run leaving the console market as fast as Xbox is. Gives me post Dreamcast Sega Vibes.

[–] SARGE@startrek.website 38 points 12 hours ago (3 children)

Damn, that's the same bass-ackwards logic that record companies use to say piracy makes them lose money.

Spoiler alert: the majority of people pirating your stuff would not have otherwise purchased it. You have lost nothing.

Similarly, the majority of people using gamepass to play the game would absolutely not have bought the game, especially since it's the same game as last time, with new names and skins.

For instance: the last call of duty game I bought was MW3. I only played black ops 2 when someone got two copies for their birthday and gave one to me I only remember playing for the zombies. I have played a total of less than 30 minutes, from startup screen to shutdown, of all the call of duties since then. Absolutely no chance in hell I'd buy another one. But I'm sure Microsoft would have included me trying it out as a potential lost sale of every one of them.

[–] Laser@feddit.org 5 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

I think for a series established that well, they should have a good estimate of how many people would have bought the game. Especially with the PlayStation crowd as a control group. Though there are probably more PS5s out there than Xbox Series devices. So in this case I do think that yes, a lot more people would have bought it.

If your argument was fully correct, there wouldn't have been many games sold on PlayStation either.

They would probably have loved to lower those 84% for PlayStation sales using the logic if it was justifiable. But no matter what, you'll always have to admit a mistake: either that GamePass hurts sales, that the market share of Xbox Series is small compared to the PlayStation or that your number one IP that you acquired for a lot of money and banked on no longer draws a crowd. Neither of these options looks good.

[–] krooklochurm@lemmy.ca 6 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

I really don't understand why people like those games. I don't find them fun at all. And the micro transactions are so fucking obnoxious.

[–] Paradachshund@lemmy.today 9 points 10 hours ago

They're a very pure and straightforward shooter experience with a lot of polish. I don't think it's that weird.

The level of monetization is totally unhinged at this point, but there's a good game buried underneath it all.

[–] SARGE@startrek.website 3 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

I used to play black ops 1 a shitload. I was fresh out of highschool and it was my first online game after getting internet. I already liked FPS games and this was interactive FPS with actual skilled people instead of shitty bullet sponge bots.

As for why people love them so much now? I have no idea. I'm sure I also wouldn't have cared for them if I had played online games earlier in life.

I'd much rather have a compelling story nowadays.

[–] frongt@lemmy.zip 3 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

People like them now because they are in the same situation you were when you liked them.

[–] Lfrith@lemmy.ca 0 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

There didn't used to be microtransactions. And now days there's so many free options that paying for an annual title that has microtransactions seems a rip off in comparison because of the alternatives. And those alternatives have huge player bases.

[–] Auli@lemmy.ca -2 points 9 hours ago (2 children)

Man piracy should get their act together there is piracy causes more people to purchase your games. Then there is they never would have bought it. Frankly I don't care I orate cause I want to and don't try to justify it with any BS.

[–] RavenFellBlade@startrek.website 1 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

Seriously. I never would have bought Earthion, TWICE, if I hadn't pirated it and fell in love with it. I firmly believe in financially supporting creators that make things I love. I DON'T believe in taking the risk of paying asking price for a game I may not enjoy in an era when demos are a rarity. As a point of comparison, Trails in the Sky FC has a demo, which I played, and convinced me to buy the full version. Pirating Switch content isn't worth the time an effort to me, and without the demo, I never would have bought it.

[–] Almacca@aussie.zone 3 points 4 hours ago

I've been seeing a lot more demos of games on Steam in the last year or so.

[–] khar21@lemmy.ca 1 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

Unironically the most honest and dignified pirate!

[–] pycorax@sh.itjust.works 64 points 13 hours ago

Of course it would. Why would I pay 100 bucks for a game that consistently got worse over time past it's first few months and becomes dead in a year when the new game comes out? If it wasn't on game pass, I wouldn't even have bothered.

[–] cerebralhawks@lemmy.dbzer0.com 44 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

This is some creative math. So the $20 a month people were then paying for GamePass didn’t amount for anything?

This is why the ex Bethesda guy said GamePass hurts developers. They’re making a killing on GamePass but they aren’t applying those numbers to game sales. Games on GamePass are expected to sell well outside of GamePass, so GamePass literally hurts games on the service. So who wins? Looks like just Microsoft.

[–] sparky@lemmy.federate.cc 7 points 9 hours ago

It’s unclear if MS is even winning considering they’re trying to hike the price 50%, and considering that Xbox sales are flat.

[–] yesman@lemmy.world 23 points 13 hours ago (4 children)

Subscription > point of sale. It's way more profitable to be a landlord than a shop keeper. That's why everything is subscription now.

[–] ZoteTheMighty@lemmy.zip 2 points 4 hours ago

Especially when you aren't consistently providing a quality product. If every game is a hit, people will buy them all, but if your games are hit or miss, you keep making revenue regardless.

[–] BCsven@lemmy.ca 5 points 12 hours ago

Only if you can keep people subscribed, the lure of a true perpetual purchase, vs a subscription service is that subscription is a lower fee. But they have to lock you in somehow.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

Wait untill you hear about loans and regular interest payments lol.

A more refined method of generating consistent, regular cashflow, rofl.

(Ahem, at least in theory, but then when that stops working, surprise! you get a bailout!)

... But yeah, the natural evolution we should expect is that MSFT (or Hulu or any other sub based service) will soon or at least eventually partner with something like klarna to offer 3-6 month payment loan options ... for every recurring monthly subscription payment.

Think about it.

What that means is that... well, if you cancel on month 5, you're still making payments through month 8, or month 11.

So ... should you really go 3 - 6 months paying for not having something?

Or just keep your subscription going?

Loans are literally the OG of 'dark pattern', MTX style bullshit, its a perfect match made in hell.

Hypercapitalism, away!!!

[–] Korhaka@sopuli.xyz 3 points 4 hours ago

I have wondered when they will push to increase minimum subscription duration. Presumably if too many people frequently sub for a single month.

[–] ripcord@lemmy.world 2 points 12 hours ago (2 children)

But they lost money

[–] Mongostein@lemmy.ca 13 points 12 hours ago

They didn’t mention GamePass income.

There are people out there who basically only play Call of Duty. They’d be paying $360 a year for it.

[–] whereyaaat@lemmings.world 2 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

No they didn't.

That's if you're naive/childish/innocent enough to assume that everyone playing this on game pass would've bought it if game pass wasn't an option.

Same backwards logic to convince useful idiots that each pirated copy is a lost sale.

Not everyone is an innocent child with disneyvision who believes corporations and their employees are there friends.

[–] jacksilver@lemmy.world 7 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

I feel like this is a piece Microsoft put out there to try to make the price increase feel justified.

I have to imagine they're around the cut even point with $240/year for gamepass (given that's four "AAA" games a year). With the price hike to $360/year, they're assuming the average user would normally buy 6 games per year at full price. I just don't think that's the average gamer, but I could be wrong.

[–] Carnelian@lemmy.world 7 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Actually remember seeing some numbers on this a while ago and I was pretty shocked at how few games the average person buys. Like median ps3 owner bought 7 games over the life of the entire console.

From looking around google quickly it looks like the average for ps4/5 is 6-10 depending on region.

So if someone stays subscribed to the service for the life of the console then Microsoft comes out way ahead compared to just selling games, I would guess

[–] jacksilver@lemmy.world 3 points 8 hours ago

Yeah, it's possible that the group who would buy gamepass arent the norm and they'd normally buy 10+ games. But even then, they'd have to be buying 10+ games a year within the gamepass library to be canabilizing sales.

Either way, they picked a really bad time given the state of the world to be raising prices by 50%.

[–] Paradachshund@lemmy.today 6 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

I'm not average I'm sure, but I buy 0 games a year at full price 😅

[–] Lfrith@lemmy.ca 4 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Same. Benefits of being a patient gamer. Dozens of games for the price of full priced games. Hardware costs less too, since I don't need the latest and greatest being couple years behind triple a titles people are playing now.

[–] sunzu2@thebrainbin.org 2 points 3 hours ago

deny the parasite profit is the only language they understand.

i wish more people knew how to do that.

[–] thingsiplay@beehaw.org 7 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

But lost sales for Black Ops was calculated from the beginning. The idea was in exchange the Game Pass subscriptions would go up. Nothing revolutionary here.

[–] snooggums@piefed.world 5 points 13 hours ago

Also all this shitty mtx they pushed front and center in the game.

[–] statiksh0ck@lemmy.usuck.fyi 8 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

Ain't no way I was gonna be buying BO7 on launch until I played it and made sure it was decently optimized. I've been baited too often by games running/being fine during beta/open access only for it to be a completely different story on launch day.

I was going to get it via Game Pass for the first month before, now that they lost sales I definitely will be lol

[–] thingsiplay@beehaw.org 3 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

Isn't this something everyone should do with every game? No pre-order, wait until reviews are out. If not really needed, then wait until patches are out, maybe with a small or big sale on the game price too. Almost all AAA games launch broken or unoptimized.

[–] JohnnyCanuck@lemmy.ca 3 points 9 hours ago

Pre-orders are bad for players and bad for devs. They're only good for publishers.

[–] ISolox@lemmy.world 6 points 13 hours ago

Me and my buddy got gamepass for a month to try BO6 on our PCs. We didn't end up keeping it after that (we just don't care about newer cods that much), but there's no way we would have tried the game otherwise for the 70$ to actually purchase it.

[–] Jaysyn@lemmy.world 2 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

Good. Fuck Microsoft.

[–] JohnnyCanuck@lemmy.ca 1 points 9 hours ago

This isn't the "good, this will fuck up Microsoft" you're looking for..They are perfectly fine with people paying through subscriptions instead of sales.