this post was submitted on 22 Aug 2023
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Real answer? SaskPower is going to do whatever they can to avoid nuclear power. They're not working in a vacuum. They've seen the project delays and massive cost over-runs in other jurisdiction and don't want any part of it.
They might not eventually have a choice, but by that time some of these small reactor projects may have a track record.
By the time the "viable" option has a "track record" will be too late. We have to get off fossil fuels far sooner than that. But our Sask party government are the ones who aren't interested in pushing the timeline.
Politically, it's better if they just leave it ambiguous.
SaskPower took a pasting for the $1.5B fiasco that was the CCS project at Boundary Dam. It was late, over-budget and so far underperforming, to put it charitably. The Parliamentary Budget Office estimated that it has essentially doubled the cost of electricity generated by Unit 3, the only unit currently running with the CCS system.
It also added about 25MW of parasitic load to what is a small unit (~140MW). At the time of construction (2009-2013), the napkin math suggested that they could have installed somewhere around 300MW (nameplate) of wind for that amount of money, while hugely reducing overhead costs. Costs for wind and solar have both dropped enormously since then.
Senior management, even those friendly with the SaskParty, are pretty reluctant to be on the bleeding edge again. On the plus side, some fairly large wind projects have come online already, bringing them up close to 700MW of wind capacity.