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Ukraine is winning because they found cheaper drone defenses than drones...
Were burning thru our sophisticated interceptors because we're wasting them on drones 1/100th the prices.
Iran just has to keep pumping out the same drones they've been sending to Russia.
Like, Ukraine is literally the one government that knows how to win this kind of war.
The only person who knows how to do anything in the US is Donald Trump, if anyone has the audacity to know better than him they will be demoted, fired or abducted by ICE.
Haaaaaaang on.
Are you saykng that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones, and now they'll be keeping them to use against the USA, for the explicit purpose of being destroyed?
So, wouldn't this mean Russia loses their supply? So wouldn't that mean it's actually in Zelenskyys best interest to NOT help the USA?
If USA ends their war quickly, Iran starts supplying Russia again with drones. But until that happens, wouldn't Ukraine have an easier time in their own war?
So on , russia produce their own drones in Russia !
This was my first take too, but I think that was mostly true in the first years when the rot in the russian military was more prevalent. They have been steadily cleaning up and ramping up production across their MIC and they also have local Shahed production now set up by Iranian engineers afaik.
That means that the main limits on Russias ability to get drones is now primarily financial, rather than production volume. So while they lost some of their effective production, they have made so much money out of this, that even if it ends today, their biggest challenge, their economy, is hugely improved. If it continues, they will be able to afford even more production.
With the effectiveness of the Shaheds, I wouldn't be surprised if China is also pumping them out and Russia can buy them there. If NATO dumped a bunch of money into reverse engineering and setting up production, Iranian allies sure as hell should have.
The USA is rapidly burning through munitions that Ukraine desperately needs. I suspect the loss of those anti air weapons etc is much worse for Ukraine than the small reduction in drones launched at them.
I honestly hadn't realised munitions were so difficult to produce. Everyone concerned about burning through stockpiles. I guess in non-war times you don't need the capability to produce a lot in a short time.
That's exactly it, yes. Modern armaments production is geared around low intensity conflicts and maintaining existing stockpiles. It's not set up for full militarization. That's a good thing in a lot of ways; economies geared for war end up needing war. But it means that even a nation like the US can only sustain a high intensity conflict for so long.
Iran is particularly taxing because they're focused heavily on the use of cheap drone munitions, which the US just does not have a cost effective way of intercepting. US air defense is still designed around shooting down expensive planes and missiles. Patriot is an incredible air defense system, but it's ungodly expensive. The whole system costs over a billion dollars, and the missiles are 4 million each. If one of those missiles shoots down a $50 million Mig-29, that's a really good deal. A $20,000 shahed drone... Not so much.
Russia is getting a huge advantage from the Iran-US war. Trump, as a Russian asset, had the excuse he needed to lift sanctions on Russian oil.
Ukraine needs to cut off Russian oil, which means stopping the Iran threat.
The only way the US ends this war quickly is by retreating. Drones or not it's a quagmire.
War agsinst a non-nuclear state onlu needs 2 things to be quick.
A shitload of nukes
Someone in charge of those nukes who has no morals or empathy.
At this point, the only thing making the war take more than a day, is the fact that somehow trump thought better of dropping 4,000 nukes spread out over the entirety of Iran. They'd probably call it something like "Operation Scorched Earth".
Nukes risk triggering MAD, that's the end of the world
It does to a degree, but also the US would likely call China/Russia beforehand and let them know it's happening - assuming they go with ICBMs. US also has tactical nukes which are dropped from aircraft the outcry would obviously be huge, but I don't see it triggering MAD.
Iran has no nukes.
Nope but China, Israel, Russia, India and Pakistan all do and its probably unclear who the US would be launching at when they're all headed towards Iran. Lots of itchy trigger fingers around.
Israel is the only country even marginally close enough to be mistaken for the target.
And they would know we're not going to fire upon them. We're apperently sucking their dick politically.
None of that would make sense for any of those countries to think it's aimed at them.
Let me put it in baseball terms. You're looking at an infield pop fly, and worried that the outfielders might catch it. Or in the case of Russia, a fan in the upper bowl of the bleachers. The trajectory doesn't line up for that to make sense.
MAYBE Israel, but again, they know they're safe from us.
Depends on trajectory, to hit Iran, unless your going over the southern hemisphere, you're either passing over China, Russia or Europe / the middle east. At least for ICBMs launched from the mainland. I suppose there's nothing stopping a sub from launching a few miles from Iran's coast.
Yes, Russia will lose a part of their supply.
They will also gain a lot of money they can use to buy things from other places.
Ukraine unfortunately is not winning and is in serious trouble.
You should say that louder for the people in Moscow without internet.
For a relatively small nation like Ukraine, still standing against the full might of Russian agression after four years, is winning it.
"Serious trouble" is holding the world's supposed second most powerful military to a gain of only 0.8% of Ukraine's territory after the initial invasion?
"Serious trouble" is a 27:1 casualty ratio in Ukraine's favor, with over 1.2 million dead or wounded on Russia's side?
If you believe that, I've got a bridge over the Volga to sell you.
Do you think Russia or Ukraine will give real number? Both side always gives fake numbers
Your other points are true. This, sadly, is not. The situation is at best 4:1, in really bad sectors, 3:1. It also varies - wounded Russian soldiers tend to die of their wounds far more often than wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
However, if it was 2.7:1, it was too pessimistic.
How did you come to that assessment, if you don't mind my asking?
Russia uses Iranian drones...
The price just skyrocketed and supply might go to zero if Iran uses all they can make
Russia uses Iranian design, but produce locally. Some reports that Russia is now providing Iran with Iranian type drones build in Russia.
It isn’t losing either and it doesn’t look that good for Russia on the battlefield right now.
You are looking locally, not globally.
You're probably the type of person to think the south was winning the civil war, until they didn't.
Russia's long term strategy ends in failure. Every week that Ukraine still exists, they are one step closer to losing.
Russia's equipment is finite, Ukraine's is not.
I'm with you until the last sentence. How is that true?
Supply lines and logistics.
Ukraine's military equipment is a mix of NATO surplus gear (ample supplies of such gear in most NATO countries, or found on the global markets), homegrown drones/missiles (can be replaced), and various other equipment for sale in the western MIC.
Russia's primary equipment is gear that was made in Russia or in former Eastern Bloc countries like Ukraine. Russia's equipment being finite comes from two things; they are burning through their vast Soviet surplus at a rate that is not sustainable, and their domestic and their domestic production of equipment cannot backfill those losses of the more modern equipment.
A bunch of the lynchpin systems Russia relies on cannot even be manufactured anymore, so when radar systems are destroyed, the replacement of such equipment cannot be easily done.