this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2025
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[–] illusionist@lemmy.zip 139 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (5 children)

Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical

Sure. That must be the reason.

[–] arcterus@piefed.blahaj.zone 61 points 4 days ago

Gotta shove AI into everything to prevent the bubble from collapsing.

[–] djsoren19@lemmy.blahaj.zone 25 points 4 days ago

certainly not like I specifically switched over to avoid having an AI automatically launch on start-up without my permission.

[–] apotheotic@beehaw.org 6 points 3 days ago

People gagging so hard on the AI dick that they try to reason that people going to open source are doing it for AI... What a world

[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 15 points 3 days ago

Glad they mentioned distros to avoid for their AI integration.

[–] Ulrich@feddit.org 5 points 3 days ago

Yeah Windows better hurry up and get some AI integration!

[–] TootSweet@lemmy.world 62 points 4 days ago (5 children)

Is it... dare I say it... the year of the Linux desktop?

[–] BeardedGingerWonder@feddit.uk 47 points 4 days ago

Well it's fucked now, I thought we all agreed not to say it and see if it made any difference

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 18 points 3 days ago

🌎👨‍🚀🔫👨‍🚀

[–] MyTurtleSwimsUpsideDown@fedia.io 23 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Shhhhhh! You’ll jinx it!

[–] RandomVideos@programming.dev 10 points 3 days ago (2 children)

The year of the linux desktop will only happen if no one said that year is the year of the linux desktop

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[–] mintiefresh@piefed.ca 7 points 3 days ago

Always has been! 🚀🔫

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[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 11 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Here is as close as I could find to the source data. Unfortunately, everything is listed in terms of "market share" which is great for "back slaps for the boys", but less great for generating hypotheses for actual causes. What I would like is the raw numbers - what were the total devices for each OS?

My bets for what are driving this change, from least to most likely:

  • Least likely: the average user, who is a lazy dumbass and knows nothing about OS's, has educated themselves on open source operating systems and has decided to throw off the shackles of their corporate, closed-source overlords, and installed a complicated operating system they've never used before onto their home desktop/laptop (which they never use) using a flash drive (which is hidden in the junk drawer where they haven't seen it for 7 years).
  • Some small tech-based businesses switched from windows to unix-based systems for their desktops. Mostly, this means now everyone is using MacBooks, but they gave in to a few developers who wanted linux-based machines.
  • Existing Linux users are finding the platform more stable for a daily driver, and are letting their windows machines go dark as the need to use them diminishes.
  • Steam deck (caveat - does this count as a desktop OS? I kinda doubt it.)
  • This has nothing to do with Linux. Windows users aren't switching to open source operating systems. They are switching to mobile devices. The average user is simply leaving their windows home laptop in the closet somewhere, and without even noticing, has transitioned to using phones and tablets as their sole devices for day to day computing. Windows isn't really losing market share to Linux - it is losing market share to Android and iOS. Usage of windows machines drops off because windows is an operating system for average users, who don't care about computers that much. Linux users, on the other hand, are much more likely to be "computer people" who like to do things like develop software - a task which can only really be accomplished in a desktop environment. So the total number of Linux desktops stays stable, while the number of windows machines drops off -> "increased" Linux market share.
[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 13 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Here is a different (in my opinion probably better) source: https://analytics.usa.gov/

It also shows Linux above 5%. I agree that most people are switching to phone and/or tablet, but: the total devices are increasing AND the total number of phone/tablet devices are increasing AND the linux share is increasing

I would expect that as the denominator (all devices which includes an ever increasing number of phone/tablet) increases that Windows, mac and linux would decrease. I am surprised (and happy) that Linux is increasing!

[–] ClassyHatter@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

That site shows OS usage on all platforms, mobile and TV included. If you select "current calendar year" as the time frame (to smooth out short term changes), the total desktop OS (Windows, Mac, Linux, Chrome OS) usage is about 50%, Linux usage is about 6%. 6% out of 50% is 12%. So, according to that site, Linux usage is about 12% if you consider only desktop OSes.

[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago

That is my naive reading of the data also. And it makes me very happy.

[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Hmmm.... Interesting! Maybe I'm mistaken

[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

Regardless of right and wrong you made interesting content for Lemmy!

[–] ScoffingLizard@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 3 days ago (5 children)

Can we also have an open source surge against Android, with valid providers in all countries?

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 days ago

I think android would be a better base to build on. don't look at their messy kernel, but the userspace. rip out the brainded, user-hostile limitations that google added in recent years, or reimplement them better, and it's pretty good.

sure continue pmos development, and plasma mobile and other components, but don't just ditch out a system that has worked well for so many time and been developed by lots of people by a company who has poured in lots of money

[–] rumba@lemmy.zip 6 points 3 days ago

We totally can, but not yet. Postmarket is trying hard AF.

The whole Voice/SMS/VoLTE/DataLTE side of things is proprietary, so they're reverse engineering it, but it's painfully slow. Probably once they crack it open, the industry will try to protect it behind encryption and DRM.

[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 6 points 3 days ago

No, because the "surge" in market share is almost certainly driven not by the average user's love of open source software, but by the average user simply letting their laptop die as they switch to phones and tablets as their sole computing devices. Windows users aren't becoming Linux users. They are becoming Android users.

[–] possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 5 points 3 days ago

I personally like Android

What we need is better AOSP

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[–] harbard@fedia.io 32 points 4 days ago (5 children)

I’m just bitching, but I had to put windows on one of my machines for the first time in just over 10 years (since I was a kid) and I absolutely fucking hate it. slow ass, bloated, clunky ass OS. garbage software.

[–] PleaseLetMeOut@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 3 days ago (5 children)

Just a tip: If you installed Pro or better you can use Group Policies (gpedit.msc) to strip the OS bloat down slightly more than the Home versions. Education and Enterprise also have the telemetry spyware completely removed. But they have a few extra things you'll probably never use and you'll want to disable (like their terrible Remote Desktop stuff, Work Folders, etc.)

(I dual boot for gaming. So I know the pain.)

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[–] pressedhams@lemmy.blahaj.zone 37 points 4 days ago (9 children)

I just made the switch on my daily driver yesterday to Endeavor OS! Am I allowed to say I use Arch btw?

[–] illusionist@lemmy.zip 15 points 4 days ago

Yes. It is arch with a calamaris installer.

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[–] BigTrout75@lemmy.world 13 points 3 days ago (8 children)

Okay Linux users, no snark about this distro is better than that one. We're all just one happy family.

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[–] uawarebrah@sh.itjust.works 21 points 4 days ago (3 children)

This is really market share against Microsoft, not Mac. For good reason too, Microsoft is working very hard to ruin their company. They’re losing a lot of ground to Mac as well, especially in the small business sector where many things are web based now anyways. Run an MSP and we’ve had quite a few clients get fed up with inconsistent updates and repeated dumb problems.. looking at you WSD and printing.

[–] possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

They went from 98% to 70%

70% is a lot but the completion is starting to slowly gain up. If companies like Google and Apple made something good Microsoft would be in serious trouble.

[–] Mio@feddit.nu 1 points 2 days ago

Apple did by releasing ARM based CPUs for desktop. This means they also change to MAC OS. Hence no longer 98% market share.

Now the future is ARM, desktop, laptop and mobile. Windows have hard time bringing over all their legacy software over to ARM. Their legacy compability is their biggest strength that they now have to get rid of or rebuild.

[–] dohpaz42@lemmy.world 14 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Oh don’t worry. Apple has been working very hard on enshitifyjng their OS. They just don’t get reported on as much as Microsoft.

[–] salacious_coaster 15 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I worked for an MSP that supported an all-Mac environment. Got real tired of telling people that their problem was a well-known bug in Mac that Apple has ignored for over 10 years and would probably never be fixed. I had to give that explanation a lot, for many different issues.

At least with Windows people expect problems like that. Mac people refuse to believe anything could possibly be Apple's fault.

[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 13 points 3 days ago

I had a Mac user chew me out for putting on a non-Apple mouse that JUST DOESN'T WORK ON MAC!!!1! Found out that he'd used the non-Apple mouse fine for about a month, then changed his desk to one with a glass top, and wasn't using a mousepad. So the laser just shot through the clear glass and did fuck-all. Didn't even have the decency to look abashed when I tossed a magazine down as a mousepad for him until we could get him some artist-approved mousepad bullshit. Fucking ad agencies are full of twats.

[–] schnurrito@discuss.tchncs.de 12 points 4 days ago (2 children)

where many things are web based now anyways

https://xkcd.com/934/

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[–] guywithoutaname@lemmy.world 7 points 3 days ago

I think a big part of this is PC builders choosing an OS. There is so much content on YouTube about switching to Linux, and people have experience with the Steam Deck as well, which also factors in.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 15 points 3 days ago

Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical

Or rather, by their optionality. Some people want those tools, some don't want to touch them with a 3m pole; Linux can appease to both, unlike Windows is doing.

[–] circuitfarmer@lemmy.sdf.org 13 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Dozens of us!!

...but this is actually good news. I'm glad to hear it.

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[–] JackbyDev@programming.dev 4 points 3 days ago

That's me now! Yayyy!

[–] eddanja@lemmy.world 13 points 4 days ago

Thanks Microsoft!

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