cross-posted from: https://lemmy.today/post/45007926
Canadian readers, from the prime minister on down, may be inclined to take comfort in the US NSS on the grounds that Canada gets no real mention. Silence is golden? No talk of annexation, border security laxity, trade relations, access to critical minerals, defence spending, or the Arctic. But to take comfort would be a serious mistake.
There are two reasons for this. One is that Prime Minister Mark Carney has described Canada as the most European of non-European countries, and he means it. It is illustrated in his ongoing support for Ukraine, his commitment to NATO, his emphasis on the Euro-Atlantic security zone, his search of new defence development opportunities with Europe, and his drive to expand economic partnerships as part of a major commitment to diversify Canadian trade beyond the US. London and Paris were the first trips he made overseas after becoming prime minister. In the meantime, Carney’s pursuit of what he once called a new comprehensive economic and security relationship with the US is going nowhere.
Canada could easily become a Europe-like problem in the hairline of Trumpian policies: elite-governed rather than populist, moderate centrist rather than far right in political orientation. Canada could be in the same sights as European countries, whose politics need a “course correction” with help from the US. Think of how the Liberal government treated the poor, well-meaning populists of the so-called “Freedom Convoy” protests, whose coffers were filled with US dollars, whose ideas were supported by American MAGA commentators, whom Trump himself backed. A little memory jog might be in order. Here is what Trump said in support of the “Freedom Convoy” protest back in February 2022: “The Freedom Convoy is peacefully protesting the harsh policies of the far left lunatic Justin Trudeau who has destroyed Canada with insane COVID mandates.”
I recently watched an interview with Marco Rubio and am actually significantly less worried about American aggression since. Not because he allayed my concerns, but because he reminded me that this administration is incompetent.
Let's put what the US is saying aside for a moment and look at the actual situation in Venezuela. Maduro's government is still in control. His VP has assumed duties and doesn't seem to be playing along. There are no American boots on the ground. There doesn't appear to be any plans to put boots on the ground. In the interview with Rubio, he laid out what the plan was. They are going to use their fleet to embargo Venezuela and pressure the already existing government until they do what the US wants.
What? How is that different from what they were doing before Maduro was abducted? What did abducting Maduro change here? In the past when doing regime change the US would have some local element ready to take advantage of the chaos to seize control of the government. My suspicion is that something similar was planned here, but for whatever reason the local part of the coup never fired. What we are looking at is a failed coup. And what we've seen from the US since, the lies about the Venezuelan VP being in Russia, the lies that she was playing along, the threats against various other countries in the western hemisphere, it's all marketing. Chest beating from the US to project an illusion of strength in the face of this failure. The one thing Trump is pretty good at is controlling the narrative, and that's what they are attempting to do here, but it's coming from a place of weakness, not strength.
Of course, this is all speculation on my part and I would still advise preparing for the worst. But I think the US is trying to cow all it's neighbours with threats that it won't be able to back up. If they aren't willing to put boots on the ground in Venezuela for oil, they sure as hell aren't going to invade Denmark for "national security".
I hope you're right, but they can still cause a lot of trouble. And Denmark can't fight the USA off singlehandedly if the US attacks Greenland, and it looks like the EU leaders are probably too cowardly to help.
I agree with all of that. I think our's and Europe's leaders are making the exact wrong move. This is a moment where we should be locking arms with they as well as Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, etc and projecting strength right back at the US. Not falling for their bravado.
Carney also seems that way. Trump said "it doesn't matter what she says, even calling it a kidnapping is not an issue" which is confidence that Venezuela like Canada's leadership will just gaslight their people for a while until they submit harder.
Everyone cowering alone instead of seeking better relations with China and Russia is what the US needs to be successful. US having meetings with those countries while Canada doesn't gives them the confidence of control.