this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2025
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Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study

The latest such assessment comes in the form of a paper from the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This concludes that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6pc to 8pc, far more than most previous estimates.

Investment is worse off by between 12pc and 18pc, employment by between 3pc and 4pc, and productivity also by between 3pc and 4pc. There have been few more devastating assessments than this.

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[–] fodor@lemmy.zip 10 points 3 hours ago

Nobody wants to talk about it? ... That's not true. People who pushed it through don't want to talk about it, and neither do their allies. Everyone else would like to see accountability, right? Get rid of those shady bastards who push nationalism by pretending it's good economics.

[–] CircaV@lemmy.ca 11 points 5 hours ago

I could have told the UK that before they left the EU. But they listened to billionaires Rees-Mogg, Truss and the like and voted for something that enriched the aristocrats and oligarchs and shafted the average person. You made your made UK. 🤷🤷‍♀️🤷‍♂️

[–] ArmchairAce1944@discuss.online 1 points 3 hours ago

I heard years ago that it was done partially to allow the UK to be turned into a tax haven or some such dodgy shit.

[–] SlartyBartFast@sh.itjust.works 1 points 3 hours ago

Brexit never shoulda happened, there I said it

[–] Bubbaonthebeach@lemmy.ca 30 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

Same as the US voting in Trump, the warnings were there before the vote.

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 7 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

IMHO part of the problem was that economics was more a branch of philosophy than a science until the 1970s, but the public never got the memo when this changed.

So we get doofuses who act like their economics claims are purely a matter of opinion, not falsifiable hypotheses. Try arguing for a UBI and watch how many chalkboard economists tell you what they imagine would happen, completely ignoring all experimental results.

[–] fodor@lemmy.zip 4 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

It turns out economics is still more hand wavy than substantive science. Economists like to pretend otherwise, but don't let them fool you. After all, what kind of scientific field would conflate "the economy" with "rich people's yachts" and just ... keep on doing that ... even when exposed?

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 2 points 2 hours ago

I agree that conflating a healthy economy with stock market growth is bogus. This misconception predates the 1970s, and is the same sort of chalkboard economics I'm talking about.

The chalkboard:

The results:

That doesn't mean that economics as a whole is bullshit. It means that monetary policy in particular has been heavily propagandized. An economist who agrees with you will find themselves unable to obtain funding and ostracized. Just like Galileo was... But it was geocentrism - not all of astronomy - that was unscientific. Science is how you know if you're a Galileo or just a crank.

You don't use science to show that you're right, you use science to become right.

Randall Munroe

IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They're pissing on our legs and telling us it's raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people's yachts?

[–] tehn00bi@lemmy.world 11 points 7 hours ago (1 children)
[–] ripcord@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago
[–] manxu@piefed.social 33 points 10 hours ago (3 children)

I think the worst part of Brexit is not that it reduced UK GDP by a fixed amount, but that the damage is getting worse with time. Brits could probably have lived with a temporary setback followed by faster growth, but it's becoming pretty evident that the UK has been permanently damaged and growth will lag peer economies' for the foreseeable future.

And yet, Reform UK is looking pretty good in the polls. Make that make sense, they were the most ardent proponents of Brexit.

[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 7 points 6 hours ago

They were hoping to benefit from a stronger relationship to the USA, and being the nexus between the USA and the EU. But the USA is just shitting on all of its supposed friends, and the EU is slowly but surely withdrawing from the Atlantic partnership.

[–] MrScottyTay@sh.itjust.works 14 points 8 hours ago

Because the majority that voted Brexit and still believe in it were never in it for the economics, at least not the kind backed by evidence, because in their minds the economy will get better for the average working man once all of the "foreigners" are no longer here.

And because of how loud this minority are, they've gotten the more gullible of the population that don't know any better to think that it's true, because they've heard it from John, Barry, Gaz and that guy on TV.

[–] SeductiveTortoise@piefed.social 0 points 5 hours ago

At least now we all know what a clown show the UK is, so they've got that going for them, which is nice.

[–] Aljernon@lemmy.today 14 points 9 hours ago

There was a reason Russia intelligence was pushing so hard for it

[–] NatakuNox@lemmy.world 4 points 6 hours ago
[–] thethunderwolf@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

is "pc" "%"? Seems like a less clear and understandable way of saying it, why do this?

[–] tal@lemmy.today 8 points 8 hours ago
[–] devolution@lemmy.world 84 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) (2 children)

Brexit is an example of what happens when Conservatives are allowed out of the basement and allowed to dictate national policy.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 9 points 9 hours ago (2 children)

haven't "conservatives" (i use "" because they never conserve anything) ruled britisn for like...the last 50 or so years?

[–] palordrolap@fedia.io 11 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

Well, there was a period in the 90s through to the early 2000s where we had a centre-left party (New Labour) running the show and mostly improving things, but then 9/11 and the Iraq war happened and the country went scurrying back to the Conservatives again.

The conspiracy nut that lives in my brain is convinced Putin's taking control of Russia in 2000 has everything to do with every single bit of the above after "but then".

We currently have New Labour (now just "Labour") in charge again, but politically they smell an awful lot like the pre-Thatcherite Conservatives.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 1 points 8 hours ago

iirc putin was helped into power by the US, for promising to hunt down any remaining communists (similar story to literally every regime change the US has backed the last...50-70+ years?).

[–] devolution@lemmy.world 3 points 7 hours ago

And isn't that why the UK is the shittiest Western European country compared to its neighbors?

[–] lazynooblet@lazysoci.al 3 points 8 hours ago (2 children)

UK conservatives at the time were split regarding Brexit. They put the vote out to the public and the conservative party campaigned to stay possibly naively expecting the vote to be in their favour.

[–] dogs0n@sh.itjust.works 2 points 4 hours ago

The brexit vote was based on lies and lies to make people vote to leave

[–] devolution@lemmy.world 4 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

They were fucking knobs who were upset England had too many brown people and slavs. Don't justify the pasty lazy fucks.

[–] Lemmyoutofhere@lemmy.ca 13 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

leopardsatemyface

[–] anonymous111@lemmy.world 5 points 8 hours ago

Pah! I think you'll find we're tired of listening to experts.

/s

[–] Gammelfisch@lemmy.world 3 points 7 hours ago

Nigel is a POS SVR asset. Another FAFO example of fucked up nationalism and racism. If you dumb bastards want to return, you're more than welcome to, but I do want to see any shit from UKIP and Nigel can shove off to fucking Moscow.

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 7 points 9 hours ago

That was one of the reasons why Putin got behind it, and made it a "success".

[–] Augustiner@lemmy.world 47 points 14 hours ago (3 children)

Interesting to read this in the telegraph. If I recall correctly they were pro leave during the campaign leading up to the referendum.

[–] TheOctonaut@mander.xyz 5 points 8 hours ago

They are pro-Tory. The Tories greatest threat right now is being eaten alive by the Reform party. Doesn't matter if the Telegraph have to take a hit, blaming Farage not the Tories for the economy is worth it.

[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 10 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

Because they report the news and inform the public .... their content just tends to have a four or five year lag compared to reality.

[–] LuckingFurker@lemmy.blahaj.zone 27 points 13 hours ago

It's the Torygraph, they deal lightly at best with news and informing the public, which is what makes it very surprising. If they're reporting it then reality is even worse

[–] SaraTonin@lemmy.world 2 points 9 hours ago

Yeah, that’s the significant thing for me here. Not what’s being said, but which paper is saying it.

[–] theuniqueone@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 11 hours ago

Who could have seen this coming? It was totally unpredictable?

[–] Naich@lemmings.world 27 points 13 hours ago
[–] Jumi@lemmy.world 4 points 9 hours ago

Well, no shit!

[–] maplesaga@lemmy.world -1 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (2 children)

People that would love every country to join the EU in harmony, do you not fear in the slightest a whole world government?

Do you not fear losing municipal sovereignty?

[–] funkless_eck@sh.itjust.works 2 points 3 hours ago

we are so far from a one world government that this is a very silly concern. Even if every country between the US, Russia and Egypt joined.

There are so many exceptions, exclusions, considerations that its not even equal to a one-European-Government.

[–] dogs0n@sh.itjust.works 3 points 4 hours ago

The UK, while in the EU still rejected a lot of ideas/rules by not following them (as far as I'm aware).

I dunno if that's something each country can do when it's not a core principal they are denying. They probably got away with it just because they are a big economic force, they can do whatever they like.

A country being in the EU doesn't change its local laws and stuff though, each can still have their own weird rules. I guess they can't override EU rules though.

I know 0 about this tho so these are opinions basically ;(

[–] jaykrown@lemmy.world 7 points 11 hours ago

I mean, it's been pretty clear for a while now. Side question, why use "pc" instead of "%"? A bit confusing.

[–] jjjalljs@ttrpg.network 5 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Will anyone learn from this? Will any of the people who were wrong lose credibility? Doubtful.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 3 points 9 hours ago

best we can do is a bailout -western government around the world, probably

[–] Damage@feddit.it 2 points 10 hours ago (1 children)
[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 2 points 9 hours ago

it probably is worse, if this data includes bullshit like ai/crypto-datacenters. that "growth" isnt leaving that bubble unless someone hunts it down

[–] dellhiver@sh.itjust.works 2 points 11 hours ago
[–] Artisian@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

The linked article text is much more lukewarm than the headline.

I was surprised/disappointed tbh. But I think you should resist updating towards agreeing with the headline. Brexit is still too ongoing and close to judge carefully, but in the data it seems like it was washed out by the energy crisis and covid across many statistics, if I'm reading right?