this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2026
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Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

If Iran’s new leadership keeps its grip on power, the long-term measure of the success of the conflict may hang on the fate of 440kg of enriched uranium which was buried under a mountain by US strikes last June, former and serving Israeli defence and intelligence sources said. Enough for more than 10 nuclear warheads, Iran could use it to hasten the construction of a weapon if the material remains in the country.

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[–] Kirp123@lemmy.world 73 points 1 week ago (6 children)

Funny enough this is what may fuck Trump over big time. Americans have been spoiled by their super low gas prices so the sudden increase is a shock nd he can't blame it on Biden or his other usual go tos.

[–] prole@lemmy.blahaj.zone 54 points 1 week ago (2 children)

nd he can't blame it on Biden or his other usual go tos.

Lol watch him

[–] tempest@lemmy.ca 22 points 1 week ago (1 children)

He can't form new memories. I swear he thinks he is in the 80s again during the hostage crisis and is still obsessed with Obama/Biden.

Still, his base seems to love a geriatric child rapist so I'm not sure they will be able to connect gas prices to his actions, even if he is essentially hitting them in the face with it.

[–] SARGE@startrek.website 19 points 1 week ago (3 children)

My coworkers have already managed to blame Obama for making a "shitty deal" with Iran, and Biden for not "dealing with Iran sooner"

[–] HugeNerd@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)
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[–] MartianRecon@lemmus.org 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

They already are saying that it's a problem because Biden didn't do anything.

Republicans are fucking feckless when it comes to their blatant lies in the media.

[–] funksoulkitchen@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The mask is off and they just can just tell obvious lies, knowing a lot of people will not so much believe the lie but justify them telling lies because it was for a good cause (owning libs, etc.). They are on a team now and they just support their team. Like when there's a tough call in sports and people just want the refs to call it in the way that helps their team. The mask isnt off so much its been replaced with a terrible mask that looks unrealistic and does little to conceal its wearers identify.

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[–] Tempus_Fugit@lemmy.world 27 points 1 week ago

Never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[–] rayyy@piefed.social 27 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Never underestimate the high powered, highly financed propaganda machine the right has constructed - that and the gullibility and stupidity of Americans.

[–] Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

*The gullible stupidity of the GOP voters.

I mean, there's plenty of non voters who guzzle up bullshit too.

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[–] tomatolung@sopuli.xyz 8 points 1 week ago

You are correct, but that won't stop them from trying to blame them.

Also the Dems are so ineffectual lately, they might just make it easy for him.

[–] FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world 8 points 1 week ago (5 children)

I agree.

Americans' #1 issue is affordability, and it is the only reason they voted for Donald. He thought he had a mandate to rebrand and rebuild the Gestapo. He thought he had a mandate to dismantle the government.

No, Americans were tired of being priced out of their lives for the last four years, hated Democrats for doing nothing about it, and believed his lies about making America an affordable place to live again.

Ironically, not even the SAVE Act will be able to save him. Tens of millions of Americans are already working multiple jobs and 100 hours a week just to overpay for their rent on a roach-infested studio. The mid-terms are going to be an absolute bloodbath for Republicans. (Though most of the Democrats we elect won't do anything to make America affordable either.)

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[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 41 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Because they don't want to "win"...

Bibi and trump both, they don't want a victory, they want a forever war they can use as justification to cancel elections.

Look at the people responsible for stopping terror attacks, they're trying to make one happen thru sheer incompetence if nothing else. trump is desperate for some type of "attack on America" because he expects a 9/11 style bump in approval, when it's likely to be the opposite reaction if it happens.

[–] tomatolung@sopuli.xyz 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

While I understand the hypothesis, I am not sure it is working out that way.

Although Trump is trying desperately to find a way to subvert the elections, given the decentralized State based nature of it, it's going to take more than an external war with Iran to justify an internal canceling of the elections. The SAVE Act is an attempt at nationalizing the Elections, but while it's moving it lacks the capacity to jump the biggest hurdle in the Senate. Any Executive attempt at nationalizing the elections has very little judicial basis, which would make it hard to hold up in court. It's dynamic and complex, but it's not as simple as his declaration of marshal law.

That is not to say your sentiment isn't correct. If he can find a way, or his backers can find a way, they will try and do it.

On the second point, Trump didn't get a 9/11 style bump. Indeed it seems to have gone almost the opposite way based on polling. Given inflation and other economic impacts, it might cause more defections before it helps him.

What it has done is push Epstein out of the US new. This too might have been part of the calculus. It is still rippling through the UK and other political systems, but the US has put it aside for now.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago

given the decentralized State based nature of it, it’s going to take more than an external war with Iran to justify an internal canceling of the elections.

If trump was constrained by a system of checks and balances, sure.

But I think there's a strong chance he "declares" them cancelled, Dem states hold them and Red states don't...

And then we see what happens on 1/6.

Like, we can't just expect them to play by the rules when there entire ethos is "fuck you, make me".

Someone's gonna have to make them... Whether thats words or actions is what we need to find out.

[–] WanderingThoughts@europe.pub 3 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Bibi just wants Iran broken and bleeding. That means nobody else can stop his settling program, aka conquer and colonize the Middle East.

Trump is just there because he thought it would be easy.

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[–] greenbit@lemmy.zip 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)
[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

American Christian extremists do...

But their prophecy is for a Jewish ethnostate to start a war that becomes Armageddon...

And to lose that war at which point the rapture happens and everyone globally gets raptured before Armageddon spreads world wide and into "Christian nations".

Bibi and Jewish extremists want to conquer the world.

The alliance won't hold together. At some point the Christian extremists will abandon Israel to bring about the next step; the destruction of Israel. Because their prophecy requires the destruction of Israel.

None of them are working towards the same goal, they're just temporarily working towards the same step, and when they reach it their plans diverege.

With the current war in Iran, the Christian extremists might move to the next step any day. We could see a sudden and drastic reversal in how Republicans treat Israel any day now.

[–] FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world 35 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Yeah.

We noticed.

They're literally just improvising this war, because the point is to create chaos in Iran and they don't care how bad it gets. These bastards want another Sudan.

[–] ShaggySnacks@lemmy.myserv.one 5 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Correct me if I am wrong, however isn't destabilizing the neighborhood that you live in is generally a bad idea?

[–] Not_mikey@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

If the choice is between a central organized state that can make missiles to launch at you, or a basket case country with no ability to make missiles because the industry is destroyed and the ones that are left are being fired within the country, you pick the basket case state.

Israel knows at this point they aren't going to get a stable friendly regime in Iran like they have in the Gulf states since popular sentiment is so against them the people would overthrow that government. So if they can't get a friendly state it's better there's no state at all to channel the broad hatred for Israel.

[–] Soggy@lemmy.world 8 points 1 week ago

Trick question, the answer is c) you establish mutually beneficial ties with your neighbors and stop being jingoist fuckstains so neither of you have to launch missiles at each other.

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[–] Lushed_Lungfish@lemmy.ca 28 points 1 week ago (6 children)

Ah but you have changed the regime. You've switched out one that was sorta kinda meh passively loathing you for one that is now for sure actively hating you and seeking your destruction!

Suffering from success?

[–] Earthman_Jim@lemmy.zip 17 points 1 week ago

Bored of Peace

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[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)
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[–] 2FortGaming@lemmy.world 12 points 1 week ago (33 children)

Oh yes, the highly enriched uranium that they only started stockpiling after Trump threw away the deal Obama made with them. The same uranium they offered to give back during the talks, Kushner and Wickoff didn't bring a nuclear specialist in for . And now because of these rich assholes thinking they can do whatever they hell they want a ton of innocent people are gonna die.

[–] Jhex@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago

a ton of innocent people ~~are gonna die~~ have already died and thousands more will follow

[–] TwilitSky@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

Until the poorly behaving wealthy see real consequences in real life for their actions, they will never stop.

Shame and ridicule is useless. They are immune.

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[–] zr0@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 points 1 week ago

AFAIK we currently have no idea, if the tunnel system of the enrichment facility has been destroyed or not. Meaning, if they even have access to 50kg of enriched uranium, it will be quite easy for them to assemble that on a rocket that reaches Tel Aviv. And if the Chinese deliver some nice intercontinental rockets, DC will be gone, too.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Israel started this war purely to derail peace/nuclear negotiations between US and Iran (twice in 9 months). Killing Ayatolah, and school girls ffs, was a purposeful act to unite Iran to commit to fight. Bombing Tehran oil depots was purposeful act to have Iran retaliate against GCC oil assets. Some Iranian reported attacks on GCC are accused as coming from Israel.

Israel only wants a destroyed chaotic Iran that is incapable of opposing its genocide and greater expansion. GCC turning against the US is perfect if the US helps fight its GCC allies for greater Israel. Never assume that Israel doesn't want the biggest bugaboo monster leading its enemy regimes, or take seriously any "Israel distraction debate/opposition" that peace was ever its goal.

Some things that have slipped out this week is that "US was planning this for months". Rubio and Hegseth are demonically possessed to serve Israel, and it is Trump's entire political capital, despite the massive direct bribes from GCC. They were planning only amongst those 3, but planning on how to best serve Netanyahu. It wasn't a pentagon/security council expert plan.

War can be going to Israel's plan, without pretending that there was something other than a maximally evil plan.

[–] MartianRecon@lemmus.org 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Israel is having us fight Iran for them while they invade Lebanon. Seems to be working out well for the Israelis from their end.

Meanwhile our soldiers are dying for them, again. I'm so over this 'relationship' we have with this fucking country.

[–] baitu@jlai.lu 2 points 1 week ago (3 children)

I read France wanted to protect Lebanon from any threat but I don't know if they will really try

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[–] this@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 week ago

Because the plan was to distract from the files.

[–] Bakkoda@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The regime change is happening on US soil. The ultimate conservative wet dream: The American government is being privatized.

[–] minorkeys@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

I'm sorry..."we"!?

[–] HugeNerd@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 week ago

vibe bombing

[–] Photonic@lemmy.world 3 points 1 week ago

No shit homie?

[–] Bwaz@lemmy.world 3 points 1 week ago

No need for regime change if you just kill all the public there. Seems to be Israrl's plan for Gaza.

[–] Gammelfisch@lemmy.world 2 points 1 week ago

An air campaign alone, removing the current leadership with airstrikes and blocking Iranian sea-trade will not win the war. The Russians and Chinese are fucking delighted, because they can evaluate and examine the US weapon systems capabilities. Regime change, it ain't gonna happen until Israel and US military forces can physically occupy Iran.

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