this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2025
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I was curious about how this will pan out, and found this:
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/11/05/Has-Alberta-Separatism-Gone-Mainstream-Common-Ground/
That is a terrifyingly high number if you ask me.
You can get a quarter of the population to vote for basically anything.
I think that guy you know might also be one of the folks who doesn't do the work to figure stuff out, unfortunately - we don't "vote for Premier", we vote for a local representative and the party that gets the most representatives installs their party leader as Premier. Just like how it's done with the Prime Minister.
Even if we did, his plan has taken a bit of a hit in the past year. A lot of Albertans have soured greatly on Gretzky given his chumminess with Trump, his statues have been repeatedly vandalized recently. "Maple MAGA" is actually not as popular here as seems to be commonly believed.
Thank god that first-past-the-post could give 39% or less full control of the provincial government.
The number goes down below 10 when asked if they'd want to separate if the Conservatives had won the federal election. They're just angy at the libs. When push comes to shove they will vote it down.
It gets more worrying
I would like to hear a firsthand experience on the last point however.
I've posted about this before, but I've been out with coworkers for a beer before and had the exact conversation on the "rest of Canada not caring" point about O&G jobs in Alberta. I'm originally from Ontario so I could chime in on that perspective for them.
The conversation was mostly geared towards them thinking the Albertan economy is "floating" the rest of Canada. When I brought up the size of Toronto and Montreal and the industries just in those two cities they brushed it off. So I took a different tactic, I started asking them if they cared about manufacturing jobs in Quebec, or fishery jobs in the maritimes or automotive jobs in Ontario. Unsurprisingly they said they didn't know / care and that those jobs weren't as numerous / important as O&G.
I ended it with saying, people care about Alberta as much as you care about Ontario, Quebec, BC, the Maritimes which is essentially zilch. I'm not sure if I got through to them but one guy actually said "somehow this seems worse". I just said "really Alberta doesn't register in most Canadians radars unless negatively".
They also genuinely couldn't understand why folks out east or in BC don't want pipelines or further O&G investment in their provinces.
Most of us anyway.
Referendums and the specific topic is a bit different. But I think looking at Trump and America should make people very wary of what having 30% of the population as fanatics can do.
The real danger is voter apathy, with Albertans figuring there's no way separation will win based on the high number of sigs on the petition so they don't bother voting, much like Brexit.
The last AB referendum showed 38.7% of eligible voters voted. If that number holds the same, and your number of 30% want to separate is correct, it's over. Every single traitor is going to vote, which could result in a landslide separatist win with 77% of voters voting to separate.
So, what about First Nations? Are you going to vote away their land??
How could they have their land voted away? AB separating just wouldn't work, with First Nations land being just one reason. Most separatists are simply traitors who don't understand what the consequences would be. The ones who know what they're doing know it would never work, but that's not the point. The point is a weakened and fractured Canada. There's a vested interest (primarily from the US) in dividing Canada, and this is a great way to do it.
All I'm saying is I hope Albertans don't get complacent, and actually get out and vote at the referendum. Brexit has proven what lack of understanding and voter apathy can result in. It can just as easily happen in AB, and all it takes is Albertans not bothering to vote because "there's no way separation will happen".
My friends in Alberta, are First Nations. And this was my first thought. We should send the people who want to be Americans, to America.
The separatists don't concern themselves with "minor details" like that.
You think the people who signed the Forever Canadian petition are all people who want to leave Canada?
Haha no, where did you get that out of what I said?
My bad, it seemed like you were implying that the 38.7% of people who signed the Forever Canadian petition and the 30% who are (or at least were) for Alberta separatism were the exact same group.
I think the real reason the UCP leadership puts this kind of crazy stuff on the ballot is to make sure that 30% shows up to vote in force. If everyone else turns up to vote, or their base had a regular level of turnout, then they'd have no shot.
30% was all Dougie needed for a majority in Ontario...
Elections have electoral districts, which is how first-past-the-post really does its damage, through gerrymandering and gaming the system for just enough votes in each district. Does the same hold true for a referendum or is that a simple tally of all provincial votes (ie, electoral districts don't matter)